Bitcoin Holds Above Key On-Chain Support Level
Bitcoin pushed through $77,600 during Asian trading on Thursday, gaining roughly 1.5% over the past 24 hours after dipping to a low of $76,400 during U.S. hours late Wednesday. The rebound came after the digital asset brushed against the average cost basis of active network participants, which sits near $76,350 — a level that has repeatedly absorbed selling pressure from investors who entered the market in February and March and chose to exit at breakeven rather than at a loss.
That clustering of break-even holders has effectively created a floor beneath the current price zone. When an asset approaches the average entry price of its most active holders, selling tends to dry up as those participants refuse to lock in losses — and that dynamic played out precisely this week.
XRP Leads the Major-Cap Rally
XRP emerged as the standout performer among large-cap digital assets, climbing nearly 3% to $1.36. BNB added close to 2% to trade just below $692, while Solana held firmly above the $100 mark with a similar 2% gain. Tron edged up roughly 1% to around $0.33, and Hyperliquid’s HYPE token remained flat just above $82. Ether, by contrast, lagged the broader market, trading just under $2,400.
Weekly Performance Reveals a Sharp Divergence
Over the past seven days, the picture darkens for several top assets. Ether has fallen nearly 4%, while Tron and XRP each shed roughly 3%. Bitcoin is down about 1% over the same stretch. Only Zcash, trading at $817, and HYPE have managed to post weekly gains among the major tokens — a narrow leadership that underscores the uneven nature of the current rebound.
Macro Crosscurrents: Rising Yields, Higher Oil, Steady Equities
Bitcoin’s resilience stands against a bond market moving in the opposite direction. Renewed geopolitical tension near the Strait of Hormuz drove crude prices sharply higher, reviving inflation concerns and pushing the 10-year Treasury yield above 4.8% — its highest closing level since 2023. The dollar index firmed to just below 100. Despite these headwinds, equities took the developments in stride: the S&P 500 closed at 7,646 and the Dow added roughly 277 points, while gold settled near $4,418.
Fed Rate-Hike Odds Retreat Ahead of Payrolls Report
Fed funds futures now assign roughly a 62% probability to a quarter-point rate increase at the September 16 meeting, down from about 67% a day earlier and roughly 37% a week ago — before the Fed chair’s Jackson Hole remarks. Futures currently price in no chance of a rate cut. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report will be the decisive data point for the September meeting, and options markets are heavily positioned around it. Downside protection is concentrated between $68,000 and $75,000, struck for the window spanning the payrolls release through the CPI report on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET, while upside exposure is held via calls above the current range and perpetual leverage remains well below its August peak.
A payrolls miss — especially when combined with Wednesday’s ADP employment figure — could pull hike odds lower and bring the $80,000 level back into play for Bitcoin.
Seasonality Warning: September Has Historically Been Bearish
Analysts tracking on-chain data have cautioned about a potential pullback in the weeks ahead, citing seasonal patterns. September has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin, with an average return of approximately -3% since 2013. However, with August’s momentum carrying into the current month, analysts expect that any intra-month correction would ultimately leave the odds favoring continuation on higher timeframes.
