Accel Reportedly Set to Lead Major Round for Thinking Machines
Thinking Machines, the AI research lab launched earlier this year by Mira Murati following her departure from OpenAI, is in advanced discussions to secure $1 billion in new capital at a valuation of at least $40 billion. According to reporting, existing investor Accel is positioned to lead the fundraise, though neither the venture firm nor the startup has publicly confirmed the details.
If completed, the round would represent a significant financial milestone for the company — though notably at a lower valuation than the $50 billion figure the startup was reportedly targeting late last year. The adjustment underscores the shifting dynamics in the AI funding landscape, where even highly prominent startups are navigating more cautious investor sentiment.
Revenue Run Rate and Valuation Multiple Raise Eyebrows
Thinking Machines’ annual revenue run rate currently exceeds $100 million, according to sources familiar with the company’s financial position. At a $40 billion valuation, that translates to an extraordinarily high revenue multiple — a metric that highlights just how much investors are betting on the company’s future growth potential rather than its current commercial output.
The company introduced Inkling in July, an open-weight model designed to generate revenue through usage-based compute fees on its Tinker platform, where users can adapt models using proprietary data. The product launch represents the lab’s first major commercial offering since its founding.
From Record-Breaking Seed Round to New Fundraising Push
Thinking Machines’ prior fundraise — a $2 billion seed round that ranks among the largest in history — valued the company at $12 billion. That round was led by Andreessen Horowitz, with participation from Nvidia, GV, Lightspeed, and Conviction Partners. Investors at the time were largely drawn to the company by Murati’s pedigree and the roster of former OpenAI researchers who joined her.
However, the startup has also experienced several high-profile departures since its founding. Some co-founders, including Lilian Weng and Luke Metz, have returned to OpenAI, raising questions about team stability during a period of rapid fundraising and product development.
What the New Round Means for the AI Landscape
The reported $1 billion round at a $40 billion valuation places Thinking Machines firmly among the most highly valued AI startups in the world. While the figure is below the company’s earlier target, it still reflects extraordinary investor appetite for AI ventures led by prominent figures from established labs like OpenAI.
Accel’s potential leadership role in the round is also significant. The venture capital firm has a long track record of backing major technology companies, and its continued commitment to Thinking Machines suggests it sees substantial upside in the lab’s long-term vision — even as some of its original founding team members have moved on.
As the AI sector continues to mature, the gap between headline valuations and actual revenue generation is coming under greater scrutiny. Thinking Machines’ path forward will likely serve as a case study for how early-stage AI companies translate enormous investor confidence into sustainable commercial success.
